Goal Setting

It’s a fun distraction. I’m thinking more about trying to get in my workouts and my miles again – distilled thankfully down to one sport –running. “What’s next?” is a familiar and comfortable conversation starter while out on the trails. With the discussion of the upcoming races though, comes the urge to figure out how I think I might do. And with the next two races, my longest yet – 38.5 mi Ghost Town, and Old Pueblo 50, this urge to figure out how I might do is a bit compulsive.

Ghost town, I don’t know. The trails look really technical. When they actually resemble trails. There will be lots of rock scrambling. I’m not sure this will be so very runnable. The distance would suggest to me maybe 7.5 hours if it was flat trail – I’m basing this on Palo Duro 50K (31 miles) in 6:04. An additional 7.5 miles run at 12 min/mi pace is 1.5 hours. But… with the hills and scrambling… I've seen pictures of the trail in places, and let's just say the trail looks like a suggestion, rather than a guide. This photo doesn't do it justice. In this terrain, the forecast becomes more a sort of fortelling. My gut says it won’t be harder than the Jemez mountain 50K.

Mo’s bundle of intestines guesses: 8:30

Looking at previous results may be a more sure route to an accurate estimate. I generally make it in time to finish in the top half of the field, both men and women. At Palo Duro, I was 41st out of 121. But at Jemez Mountain 50K, I was 44th out of 96. So, very nicely, the wonderfully verbose RD of the GT 38.5 has stats listed on her website. Analysis girl, having found a kindred spirit in this one respect, might make her some cookies. Half the field finished in 8:35 in 2007, 8:40 in 2008, and 8:04 in 2009. The 2010 course will be a 2007 course redux.

Analysis girl votes: 8:35

But I feel I can maybe go faster.
Mo’s shy but confident heart bets: 8:10



Old Pueblo 50 M
Predictions for Old Pueblo 50 miler involve more data from previous results, but also more guessing in that is it MUCH farther than I have run before. It’s hilly, on technical-ish trail. Might be hot. But it is at lower altitude. And I am training on hills, some.


Mo's Gut’s hard goal: 11:15

Mo's Gut’s medium goal: 12:00


If we say I’ll be in the top half, I’ll finish around 11:30. If we look at just women and use my palo duro placing as a guide, I’ll finish in 11:30. Ok, then.

Analysis girl votes: 11:30

But I really just want to be under 12 hours. It’s an unknown distance. Under 12 hours sounds good. That’s how fast I want to do the first 50 in Leadville, though that course is much tougher. Still, 12 hours is a good place to start.

Mo’s calculating, careful mind: 12:00

Right now, having given a little thought to the races, I just want to go run. I’m coming off of two weeks of making 100% of my workouts (with a little rescheduling of 5 miles for the snow yesterday), and it feels like a really good place to be. It’s nice to have the urge to get out there, to go see the trails and visit the soft quiet places.
Off I go!